Commencements….
Data for the first six months of this year indicate that 2,647 new housing units were commenced throughout the country. The same period last year indicated 3,736 units were started, a drop of 1,089 year on year or 29.1%.
Of the 2,647 units started this year, 1977, or nearly 3 out of every 4, were one off units.
Of the 1,977 one off units, the county with the largest quantity was Cork, with 241 commencements for the first six months of 2011.
The overall one off house Market in Cork has dropped 33% year on year.
Interestingly, the only county showing any significant growth is Cavan with 340 commencements for the first six months of 2011 compared to 92 for the same period last year, an increase of 270%. Of those 340 commencements, 52 were one off units with the remainder made up of scheme houses and apartments.
Completions….
Data for the first six months of this year indicate that 7,002 new housing units were completed throughout the country. The same period last year indicated 9,513 units, a drop of 2,511 year on year or 26.4%. Completion figures are normally compiled using ESB new connection figures.
Of the 7,002 units completed this year, 4,194, or nearly 60%, were one off units.
Of the 7,002 completions, the county with the largest quantity was Dublin, with 1,118 completions, followed closely by Cork with 954 for the first six months of 2011.
In brief….
Based on the above figures, it is estimated that 10,000 units will be completed this year and 7,500 in 2012. Single Unit Construction will make up the majority of those figures. Cork will be the main benefactor with Galway leading the rest of the field, some 40% behind for 2012.
Opinion….
House completions at the height of the boom in late 2006 were c. 97,000 with recent census figures indicating a requirement for 35,000 units every year until 2020 to cope with population demand. Whilst the 2006 figures were artificially inflated, the current figures are artificially deflated. We need to see a return to a fully functioning banking system and un-sold stock washed through the market, before we can fully say the residential housing market has stabilised. The dominant one off house market is totally different to scheme houses in that the owners have their own site or have purchased a site at current market conditions rather than paying over the top back in the height for estate houses due to developer speculation, land owner demands etc. This makes the one off build cost very economic and competitive because the main driving factor is labour and materials, both of which have stabilised considerably in recent times.
